CIOSS Researchers Develop Pilot Ocean Prediction System

Supported by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR’s Satellite Oceanography and Climatology Division, Research Fellows led by Alexander Kurapov at the Cooperative Institute for Oceanographic Satellite Studies (CIOSS) at Oregon State University have developed three-day forecasts of ocean conditions off Oregon and Northern California. Forecast fields have been available on IOOS/NANOOS since July 2009 through efforts of CIOSS Fellows Jack Barth and Craig Risien. These fields have been enthusiastically used by tuna fishers since their introduction in late-summer 2008. Improvements (under development) include the assimilation of satellite data, along with the addition of ecosystem components and dissolved oxygen models, to allow forecasts of algal blooms and hypoxic conditions.

Background: The fishing community has long been aware that conditions favoring tuna catch occur near surface fronts of temperature (SST) and chlorophyll concentrations. Although visible in satellite images, clouds obscure these images for days at a time. However, coastal ocean models produce cloud-free fields of SST, currents and (eventually) chlorophyll that can be made more realistic by assimilating the sparse satellite data.

CIOSS Fellows are improving both remote-sensing methods and modeling techniques, which have resulted in a coastal ocean forecast system (initially without data assimilation). Use of forecast fields of SST and currents has spread during 2009 among fishers, whose suggestions have enhanced the usefulness of the combined model and satellite fields.

Significance: As Oregon fisherman Ron Seip says in a NOAA press release, “We use this site to decide how far to go to fish for tuna, where to go, or whether to go at all. It is invaluable, especially in light of the cost of fuel.” There have also been inquiries from those responsible for hazardous spill predictions. Model and satellite fields are expected to find numerous other applications, as they are combined and improved through data assimilation and made available through IOOS and CoastWatch web sites. This activity supports NOAA Mission Goal 1 - Protect, Restore, and Manage the Use of Coastal and Ocean Resources.