CICS Developing a Regional Earth System Model to Study Chesapeake Bay Health

Researchers at the Cooperative Institute for Climate Studies (CICS) and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC) at the University of Maryland, College Park, are developing a Chesapeake Bay Forecasting System (CBFS) to provide integrated environmental prediction, retrospective analyses, and climate change projection capabilities for the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. A major focus of the project is to work closely with the user community to identify products that will meet user needs in the daily to decadal time periods. A recent case study of Hurricane Hanna (September 6-7, 2008) has shown good potential in the forecasting capabilities of the modeling system, providing atmospheric data that resulted in promising watershed-runoff and Bay-condition predictions. Ongoing developments are underway to complete or enhance the various models that comprise the CBFS. Linked products include forecasts of hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, human pathogens, storm surges and inundations. Impact of land use change on the health of the Bay are also projected for the future decades through the use of various climate change scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic Information System user interfaces are also being developed for users in need of decision and policy support systems.

Background: ESSIC is a research center composed of various University of Maryland academic departments, the Earth Sciences Directorate of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and CICS, a collaborative research endeavor with NOAA's National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service Center for Satellite Applications and Research, and NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The mission of ESSIC is to improve the scientific understanding of the interactions of the atmospheric ocean-land-biosphere components of Earth as a coupled system and to enhance our knowledge of how human activities influence this system.

Significance: Water quality and ecosystem health in the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in North America, is degraded due in part to the various human and natural activities occurring within its 64,000 square mile watershed. Threats of future climate change and current limitations in knowledge about how to adapt to such change add to the risk of deteriorated Bay health. In order to understand and minimize the negative effects of human activities in view of these threats, new products such as CBFS are needed to aid the decision making process.